Bank

Roubini, Basiléia e além

Este post é mais um de uma série de posts que faço em Portugues quando leio um bom livro em portugues. O livro em questão é A Economia das Crises (2010), de Nouriel Roubini e Stephen Mihm, e relata falhas na primeira versão do acordo de Basiléia que levaram ao colapso financeiro de 2008 nos EUA e no mundo, e o post será seguido de um complemento, apotando as falhas na segunda versão do mesmo acordo.

Enjoy!

 

Consideremos, por exemplo, dois bancos hipotéticos que investem USD 1 BI tomados de outras fontes. Um investe em obrigações superseguras do Tesouro dos EUA; o outro investe em obrigações de alto risco emitidas por empresas. De acordo com Basiléia I, os dois bancos atribuiriam um fator de risco diferente (percentual) para esses ativos diferentes.

Isso por sua vez, iria determinar o capital que o banco deveria ter relacionado a esses ativos e seu risco associado. Na pratica, o banco com dívidas superseguras do governo precisaria de menos capital que o banco com divida de alto risco.

O Basiléia I continha ainda outras clásulas. Os bancos que operavam em multiplos países precisavam manter um capital equivalente a 8% de seus ativos ponderados pelo risco. Em complemento, normas técnicas especificaram a forma que esse capital ou participação poderia ter: ações ordinárias, ações preferenciais e outros capitais de alta qualidade, que se chamou de Nível 1 [Tier 1], e então todo o restante, Nível 2 [Tier 2].

O primeiro acordo de Basiléia entrou em vigor na década de 1980, e a marioria dos países do G-10 adotou suas medidas até 1992. Muitas economias emergentes também adorataram essas normas  de forma espontanea, o que provocou o desmantelamento dos mercados emergentes; os padrões que faziam sentido para as economias industriais avançadas mostraram-se mais dificeis de serem aplicados em economias emergentes, em especial em tempos de crise.

Não menos inquietante, tambem ficou claro que os bancos haviam encontrado meio de ocultar os riscos que o acordo de Basiléia I não previra — por exemplo, securitizando ativos. Esses truques deram aos balanços dos bancos uma estabilidade aparente, mas não real. Os bancos haviam encontrado um meio de obedecer a letra, mas não ao espírito das normas.

Essas lacunas levaram ao Basiléia II.

Enquanto o primeiro tinha apenas 37 páginas, o novo acordo era dez vezes mais volumosos. Ele criou normas técnicas mais precisas sobre como dimensionar o risco relativo de vários ativos; sugeriu métodos para fazer tais cálculos; ampliou a definição de risco, de modo a  abranger novos perigos, como a probabilidadde de os ativos desvalorizarem no mercado aberto; procurou suprir várias omissões por meio das quais os bancos haviam ocultado riscos; exigiu que os reguladores acompanhassem com mais vigor o cumprimento da exigencia sobre requisitos de capital, e enumerou os meios sobre os quais os bancos publicariam suas demonstrações finaneiras.

Os membros do G-10 ratificaram a versão final do Basileia II em 2006.

Então procuraram as nações individualmente para que a implementassem, um processo que estava em andamento quando a crise eclodiu. Tornou-se imediatamente evidente que, com todas as suas especificações, o Basiléia II tinha sérias falhas. Embora muitas das revisões fossem uma resposta às crises de 1990, o acordo não protegeu os grandes bancos dos transtornos causados por uma grande crise financeira.

Em resumo, o Basiléia II presumiu que o sistema financeiro mundial era mais estável do que ele de fato era. Esse foi um grave erro.

— Nouriel Roubini

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Borge’s Map

“we now use the country itself, as its own map, and I assure you it does nearly as well”

Ubiquitous Sensing. The number of Internet-connected devices hit 8.7 billion in 2012. IP-enabled sensors are projected to exceed 50 billion by 2020. The number of sensors of all types is variously projected at between 1 trillion and 10 trillion between 2017 and 2025. The lower estimate translates to 140 sensors for every man, woman, and child on the planet.

Ubiquitous Connectivity. Mobile broadband subscriptions reached 2.3 billion in 2014—five times the number in 2008. The smartphone is the fastest-adopted technology ever; the biggest absolute growth is in India and China. At the end of 2014 there were nearly 7 billion mobile-cellular subscriptions globally—nearly one per person on Earth.

Convergent Data. The world’s production of data grew 2,000-fold between 2000 and 2012. Its stock of data is expected to double every two years; 99 percent of it is digitized and half has an IP address. This means that half of the world’s data can now be put together, at near-zero cost, to reveal patterns previously invisible. Half of the world’s data is already, technically, a single, universally accessible document.

borges map

Sources:

http://digitaldisrupt.bcgperspectives.com/#

http://en.wikipedia.org/

Accrual

Accrual or accumulation of something is, in financial terms, the adding together of interest or different investment sources over a period of time.

It holds specific meanings in accounting, where it can refer to accounts on a balance sheet that represent liabilities and non-cash-based assets used in accrual-based accounting. These types of accounts include, among others, accounts payable, accounts receivable, goodwill, deferred tax liability and future interest expense.

For example, a company delivers a product to a customer who will pay for it 30 days later in the next fiscal year, which starts a week after the delivery.
The company recognizes the proceeds as a revenue in its current income statement still for the fiscal year of the delivery, even though it will get paid in cash during the following accounting period. The proceeds are also an accrued income (asset) on the balance sheet for the delivery fiscal year, but not for the next fiscal year when cash is received.

Similarly, a salesperson, who sold the product, earned a commission at the moment of sale (or delivery). The company will recognize the commission as an expense in its current income statement, even though the salesperson will actually get paid at the end of the following week in the next accounting period. The commission is also an accrued expense (liability) on thebalance sheet for the delivery period, but not for the next period when the commission (cash) is paid out to the salesperson.

Limits Nor Morality

David Ricardo’s insight into the price of land is nevertheless interesting: the “scarcity principle” on which he relied meant that certain prices might rise to very high level over many decades.

This could well be enough to destabilize entire societies. The price system plays a key role in coordinating the activities of millions of individuals –indeed, today, billions of individuals in the the global economy.

The problem is that the price system knows neither limits nor morality.

It would be a serious mistake to neglect the importance of the scarcity principle for understanding the global distribution of wealth in the twenty-first century.

To convince oneself of this, it is enough to replace the price of farmlands in Ricardo’s model to the price of urban real estate in major world capitals, or, alternatively, by the price of oil.

In both cases, if the trend over the period 1970-2010 is extrapolated to the period 2010-2050 or 2010-2100, the result is economic, social, and political disequilibria of considerable magnitude, not only between but  within countries– desequilibria that inevitably call to mind the Ricardian apocalypse.”

Thomas Piketti, Capital in the 21st century

capital

Social Media Revolution

We’re living amidst a revolution.

This video is a commercial (too commercial) about a book (name in the end of the video), and social media is in fact part of the entire revolution sprectrum, but the data is really interesting and the music… amazing.

By the way, I’ve read the book.

The life cycle of a technology

I Precursor

II Invention

III Development

IV Maturity

V Pretenders

VI Obsolescence

VII Antiquity

One Size Doesn’t Fit All

The new consumer and its choice alternatives

 

{Infinite Loop} Begin;

“As we get deeper into filters and how they work, it helps to get an overview of their many types.

Let’s start with music.

Here are some of the many different filter types a typical user on Rhapsody might encounter in a single session as she or he looks for new music.

From the front page, a user might start with category, wich is a form of a multi-level taxonomy.

Let’s say you begin in Alternative/Punk and then choose the subgenre Punk Funk. In that category, there’s a best-seller list, wich is led by Bloc Party… If you click on Block Party, you’ll find that pattern matching has created a list of related artists, wich includes the Gang of Four. A click on that produces the list of “followers”, wich is a form of editor recommendation (you may also be pesuaded by the editorial review).

Among those…

View original post 469 more words

Bank 2.0

Although the Internet has become an essential part of banking and commerce for most consumers in developed economies, the channel itself is still often limited in terms of potential because it is seen primarily as a cost saving mechanism by most retail institutions.

There appears to be a widely held belief by many banking execs that while the Internet as a channel may supplement revenue, it is never going to be a serious sales or revenue channel.

However, there are various facts that absolutely contradict that assertion, if not now, in the medium term.

So the question is why do some make this assumption?

Brett King, Bank 2.0

Da Vinci

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”

–Leonardo Da Vinci

davinci

Quality Services

The following text was extracted from the book “The Credit Union World”, by Wendell Fountain, emphasizing the significance of Quality in service provision and its basic components.

“High-quality member service is not difficult to deliver. It depends on the constraints which the employee has to operate within; those are usually imposed by management, and the attitude of the employee.

Attitude is one thing of which an employee has control. No one can take away a positive attitude; a person must be willing to give it up. If employees are taught and encouraged to follow the fundamentals, it is difficult to fall short in the member relationship management process. So much depends on training and the willingness of the trainee to internalize the significance of such a simple method. The better the training the more likely that service will be delivered properly. Members and other consumers have become so accustomed to mediocrity that excellent service is perceived to be exceptional, consumers get excited.

What credit unionists, at all levels, should want are excited members because of excellent service. Once excellent service becomes an embedded cultural process, members expect nothing less and that should be the goal of all credit union leaders and managers.

If credit unions just practice the fundamentals, by delivering excellent service, member relationship management should be a given.”

An interesting point presented in this very few lines. Basically, half the process is under influence of external factors, or physical constraints, and half is influenced by internal factors, mainly positive attitude.

I totally agree with it.

Given that a service is an intangible commodity, like computer software, what if we extrapolate this concept to software products and services?

A software program is like a living creature, it grows throw unpredictable paths while users interact with it, adding personal experience to the user interface. Some operations have to defend themselves from end-user “creativity” while others explore it as a potential value generator. So, the positive attitude might not be a matter of intelligence, sophistication or operational procedures, but also good and structured programming, well designed interfaces, rational layouts, communication and a few other nudges.

Software products has technological considerations like platform update or even structural upgrade of installed base– database, servers, networks, middleware, packages, clients, …,– as technology itself is a never ended product because Evolution never reach an end.

Add the fact that businesses are complex routines in most of the cases.
The divide to conquer approach doesn’t make thing easier, it only make things possible. For machines all things are mathematical operations, but for human intelligence, decode this assumptions in machine language is quite a challenge.

It might look that the comparison between quality service for the financial market and software products wasn’t so clear, but the point here is that complex things are derived from single activities, and this activities are basically a combination of physical constraints and positive attitude, for the best cases.

credunworld